The International Monetary Fund and the World Bank are now predicting the Vietnam’s economic growth will be in the 5-6% range next year, slightly higher than for 2012. This suggests continued slow recovery from Vietnam’s 4-year economic slump that had followed a decade of spectacular growth.
The IMF says Vietnam’s GDP will have grown 5.1% after 2012 is over, and 5.9% in 2013. In five years, the rate is predicted to be 7.5%, about the pace for most of the first decade of the 21st Century.
Inflation is expected to be 8% for this year and 6% next year, and unemployment 4.5% for both years.
The Asian Development, HSBC, ANZ, and Standard Chartered Banks have similar growth forecasts. So does the World Bank, pointing out the deceleration of the Vietnam economy has been mostly the result of the government prioritizing inflation control.
In other words, while Vietnam investors have been disappointed recently, there’s a growing consensus that Vietnam is heading back in the right direction economically.